The scene was both bewildering and shocking on May 29, 2003, at the Aso Rock Presidential Villa during the cake-cutting ceremony for President Obasanjo’s second-term inauguration. He was joined by two governors and some leaders from the opposition All Peoples Party (APP), which later transformed into the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) and eventually contributed to General Muhammadu Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC).
At that time, the Alliance for Democracy (AD), the only other opposition party, was in decline, losing all but one of its six governors in the South-West region, its traditional stronghold. Only Lagos State’s Governor Bola Tinubu managed to retain his position, aided by strategic deals with a ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) leader. The other five governors—Adebayo Adefarati (Ondo), Lam Adeshina (Oyo), Niyi Adebayo (Ekiti), Segun Osoba (Ogun), and Bisi Akande (Osun)—were defeated. Obasanjo’s success was attributed to tactics such as manipulation of election results and leveraging ethnocultural biases, allowing the PDP to gain control of these states.
A 2004 US State Department report revealed the dominance of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in Nigeria’s 2003 elections, securing 70% of national legislature seats and 75% of state governorships. This followed President Obasanjo’s tactics to weaken opposition parties, including the All Peoples Party (APP) and the Alliance for Democracy (AD).
Obasanjo appointed key opposition figures to his administration, such as Senator Mahmud Waziri as Presidential Adviser on Inter-Party Affairs, and late Chief Bola Ige as Minister of Power. He also appointed Dupe Adelaja, daughter of a prominent Afenifere leader, as Minister of State for Defence. These moves were seen as attempts to destabilize and co-opt the opposition.
The decline of these opposition parties can be attributed to several factors, including:
* The influence of money in politics, which drives many politicians’ decisions
* The use of blackmail, intimidation, and abuse of court processes to silence opposition voices
* The loss of faith in the electoral system, leading opposition politicians to defect to the ruling party for personal gain.
These factors have rendered opposition parties “toothless and irrelevant” over time, allowing the ruling party to maintain its dominance. The report identifies 10 key issues that contribute to the weakness of opposition parties in Nigeria.
In his influential 2002 work, “Viable Party System As Basis Of Democracy,” Professor Omo Omoruyi from the Centre for Democratic Studies highlighted a “deep-seated uncertainty” in Nigeria’s political landscape, rooted in the interplay of the past, present, and future. He identified three critical areas affected by this uncertainty: persistent political challenges, dwindling trust in the political system, and the cycle of winners and losers.
The report revealed that socio-economic contradictions within Nigeria hinder the development of a thriving opposition capable of initiating meaningful change. The political environment, characterized by neo-patrimonialism and patronage networks, complicates removing detrimental behaviors from political practices.
While there are theoretically three types of political parties—vote-seeking, office-seeking, and policy-seeking—none of Nigeria’s current parties adhere to the policy-seeking model. Since 1999, they have been focused on securing office, often stifling political competition.
Omoruyi criticized the prevailing sentiment expressed in the phrase “THERE IS NO VACANCY IN ASO ROCK,” which suggests a monopoly on political power by the ruling parties. He argued that a healthy democracy relies on the belief that elections will occur, winners will change, and losers will have future opportunities.
He warned that indications of a rigged political system were present, with fears of compromised nomination and election processes. Omoruyi concluIt has been suggested that political parties maintain power by enticing segments of the electorate and persuading opposition leaders to refrain from challenging their authority. A notable example is the late Dr. Wahab Dosunmu, a former Second Republic Minister, who switched from the Alliance for Democracy (AD) to the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) without hesitation, suggesting that disillusioned politicians should pursue legal action.
Following his lead, Oluseye Ogunlewe also defected from AD to PDP, subsequently receiving a ministerial position. These moves opened the floodgates for more defections, undermining challenges to party switches despite efforts to impose legal restrictions.
Key Factors Influencing Political Defections:
- Greed of Political Actors: Many politicians are driven by greed, seeking power and wealth without scruples. Often, those who once championed virtuous ideals abandon their principles for the benefits associated with ruling parties. Their desire for personal gain leads them to betray their original parties.
- Role of Money: The pursuit of wealth is a significant motivator for many politicians in Nigeria. Entering politics primarily to acquire wealth, they find it challenging to earn money while in the opposition. In a “winner-takes-all” political culture, politicians often jump to the ruling party to access financial resources and privileges, neglecting their responsibilities to their constituents.
- Pressure from Constituents: Constituents also share in the responsibility for this trend. With widespread poverty, there’s a desire among the electorate to align with power and opportunities. Seeing ruling party members receive benefits, constituents often pressure their leaders to defect, leading politicians to prioritize personal gain over the welfare of their supporters.
4.Fear of Losing Political Relevance: After elections, politicians assess their positions and may choose to align with the ruling party to maintain visibility and influence. Opposition members face pressure to adopt political correctness and avoid challenging the status quo, leading to indecision and silence in the face of oppression.
- AGIP Political Orientation: Since 1999, many politicians have become known as AGIP (Any Government In Power) politicians, as they jump from one party to another depending on who holds federal power. Their focus is self-serving rather than for the public good, leading to a lack of genuine opposition.
- Absence of a Second Address: Many politicians, often lacking other professional qualifications, rely solely on political positions for their livelihood. This dependency drives them to remain loyal to the ruling party to sustain their lifestyle, making them less likely to act against it.
- Lack of Sustainable Party Structure: Opposition parties often lack solid organizational structures, reducing their effectiveness and allowing a few individuals to dominate. Many parties function merely as vehicles for acquiring power rather than fostering strong, value-driven institutions.
- Absence of Internal Party Democracy: There is a significant deficiency in internal democracy across Nigerian political parties. This shortcoming often leads to the election of individuals who are uncommitted to party values and who readily shift alliances to the ruling party upon election.
- State Capture by Ruling Party Leaders: The ruling party seeks to control all aspects of governance, compromising institutions like the judiciary and legislature to serve its interests. This intimidation and manipulation inhibit opposition efforts and discourage dissent.
- Loss of Faith in the Electoral Umpire: Many politicians lack confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) due to past electoral malpractices. The perception that elections are rigged only serves to push opposition members toward the ruling party, where they believe they can achieve electoral success and gain political leverage.